By Tanya Faulkner
El Niño has officially been announced as underway across Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology, with locals being warned to be prepared.
The announcement officially came due to fires burning across the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales in the recent heatwave experienced across the country.
Closer to home, the warmer weather saw fires develop at the Koo Wee Rup Reserve whilst there were football finals underway, which was brought under control by the Koo Wee Rup and Bayles CFA.
It has been said the fire started from a cigarette butt, highlighting the need for locals to be aware of the upcoming conditions.
Alongside the abnormally warm temperatures recently experienced in Victoria, the Bureau also said Australia has also been experiencing abnormally high sea temperatures over recent months, which have triggered a red alert among scientists.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole tend to draw rain away from Australia.
“Over spring, their combined impact can increase the chance of below average rainfall over much of the continent and higher temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the country.
“The Bureau’s three-month forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature has been indicating warm and dry conditions for some time.
“An established El Niño and positive IOD reinforces our confidence in those predictions.
Based on history, it is now also more likely that warm and dry conditions will persist over eastern Australia until autumn,” he said.
El Niño events increase the risk of extreme temperature shifts, like heatwaves and hotter days.
A record spell of September heat has brought warmer than average temperatures to most of the South East in recent days, with some temperatures as much as 18 degrees Celsius above average, prompting an early end to the snow season.
Upper Ferntree Gully CFA captain Peter Smith said although we have had this announcement, weather is not 100 per cent predictable, and some of the indicators and driving factors are still moving slower than expected.
His advice to locals to ensure they are cleaning up their properties, and making sure that when they are burning off that it is not too windy and it is registered.
“It is also useful for locals to have the EMV app and the CFA website on their mobile devices to keep up to date,” he said.
Mr Smith said there has not yet been any announcements about the start of the fire season, but it will most likely be earlier than in previous years.
“It would also help if people would consider joining their local fire brigades, at the very least to keep their own property safe,” he said.
Victorians can expect a cool change gradually moving through in the coming days, ahead of the upcoming warmer season.
The BOM said when El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole co-occur, drying in Australia is typically amplified.
The last time El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurred together was in 2015.
